As one of a panel of 14, Tim Spicer was invited to contribute to an article published in The Independent today entitled: 'Fifty days of bombing in Europe, and the voices of doubt grow even louder'. The full text of his piece as submitted is reproduced below:
So far the aim hasn't been achieved - genocide is almost complete - Milosevic is still in power (with little sign of removal). Rambouillet has not been signed. Most Kosovans, except the KLA, have left.
Why? No war has ever been won by air power alone. Wars are won by combined arms effort. The only effect of the air campaigns has been to unite the Serbs against a common enemy. At the tactical level there has not been enough interdiction of the Serbian military in Kosovo to prevent their operations against the local population.
Much has been made of the mistakes - the convoy incident, the railway bridge, the bus and the Chinese Embassy. Even allowing for the likelihood of Serbian deception, mistakes in targeting will always happen in war - remorse, yes; blame for those involved, no. However, taking care in intelligence preparation is vital, not only to avoid unnecessary loss of life, but to avoid damaging criticism and fragmentation of cohesive effort within the alliance.
What next? Of course a diplomatic solution is the best answer, providing it is not a fudge; but having failed to achieve the aim in a short timeframe the plan must be revised to regain the initiative. This must include a ground plan to take control of Kosovo to allow the refugees to return. This will involve Nato fighting their way in and must include support to the KLA,in spite of the criticisms of that organisation. Milosevic must not be allowed to divert Nato by deception.